Famous author and political scientist, (Late) Dr. Samuel P. Huntington (of The Clash of Civilizations fame) had described one the possible scenarios that may lead to a global war in near future. This assumption is based on the ongoing Geopolitical trends across the globe. This text mentions the scenarios that may spark off a major war, developments that may convert it into a global war, alignments of the various nation-states and possible aftermaths.
Scenario: American troops are out of Korea, which has been re-unified and the US has greatly reduced military presence in Japan. Taiwan and Mainland China have reached an accommodation in which Taiwan continues to have most of its de facto independence but explicitly acknowledges Beijing’s suzerainty. The development of oil resources in South China Sea has proceeded apace, largely under Chinese auspices but with some areas under Vietnamese control being developed by American companies. Its confidence boosted by its new power projection capabilities, China announces that it will establish its full control of the entire sea, over all of which it has always claimed sovereignty. The Vietnamese resist and fighting occurs between Chinese and Vietnamese warships. China, eager to revenge their 1979 humiliation, invades Vietnam.
The War Begins: Vietnam appeals for American assistance and the Chinese warn the US to stay out of the war. Japan and other nations in Asia dither. US declares that it cannot accept Chinese invasion of Vietnam , calls for economic sanctions against the Chinese, and dispatches one of its few remaining carrier task forces to the South China Sea. The Chinese denounce this as a violation of Chinese territorial waters and launch air-strikes against the task force. Japan prohibits the use of US air bases in Japan for action against China and quarantines the bases by announcing its neutrality. Chinese submarines and land based aircraft operating from Taiwan impose heavy damage on the ships. Meanwhile Chinese troops enter Hanoi.
Development into a Global War: The war is having an impact on the major states of other civilizations. India seizes the opportunity offered by China’s being tied down in East Asia to launch a devastating attack on Pakistan with a view to degrading the country’s nuclear and conventional military capabilities. It is initially successful but the military alliance between Pakistan, Iran and China is activated and Iran comes to Pakistan aid. India becomes bogged down fighting both Iranian troops and Pakistani guerrillas. Both Pakistan and India appeal to Arab states for support-India warning of the danger of Iranian dominance of the Southwest Asia.-but the initial successes of China against the US have stimulated major anti-Western movement in Muslim societies. One by one the remaining pro-Western governments of Arab states and Turkey are brought down by Islamic fundamentalists. This surge of anti-Westernism provoked by Western weakness leads to a massive Arab attack on Israel, which the much-reduced US Sixth fleet is unable to stop.
As China scores military successes, Japan nervously begins to bandwagon with China, shifting its position to pro-Chinese neutrality and eventually becomes a cobelligerent. The United States declares a blockade of Japan, and Japanese and American ships engage in sporadic duels in Western Pacific. At the start of the war China proposed a mutual security pact with Russia (vaguely reminiscent of the Hitler-Stalin pact). But instead the prospects of Chinese victory and total dominance of China in East Asia terrifies Moscow. As Russia moves in an anti-China direction and begins to re-inforce its troops in Siberia, the numerous Chinese settlers in Siberia interfere with these movements. China then intervenes on pretext of protecting its countrymen.
Scenario: American troops are out of Korea, which has been re-unified and the US has greatly reduced military presence in Japan. Taiwan and Mainland China have reached an accommodation in which Taiwan continues to have most of its de facto independence but explicitly acknowledges Beijing’s suzerainty. The development of oil resources in South China Sea has proceeded apace, largely under Chinese auspices but with some areas under Vietnamese control being developed by American companies. Its confidence boosted by its new power projection capabilities, China announces that it will establish its full control of the entire sea, over all of which it has always claimed sovereignty. The Vietnamese resist and fighting occurs between Chinese and Vietnamese warships. China, eager to revenge their 1979 humiliation, invades Vietnam.
The War Begins: Vietnam appeals for American assistance and the Chinese warn the US to stay out of the war. Japan and other nations in Asia dither. US declares that it cannot accept Chinese invasion of Vietnam , calls for economic sanctions against the Chinese, and dispatches one of its few remaining carrier task forces to the South China Sea. The Chinese denounce this as a violation of Chinese territorial waters and launch air-strikes against the task force. Japan prohibits the use of US air bases in Japan for action against China and quarantines the bases by announcing its neutrality. Chinese submarines and land based aircraft operating from Taiwan impose heavy damage on the ships. Meanwhile Chinese troops enter Hanoi.
Development into a Global War: The war is having an impact on the major states of other civilizations. India seizes the opportunity offered by China’s being tied down in East Asia to launch a devastating attack on Pakistan with a view to degrading the country’s nuclear and conventional military capabilities. It is initially successful but the military alliance between Pakistan, Iran and China is activated and Iran comes to Pakistan aid. India becomes bogged down fighting both Iranian troops and Pakistani guerrillas. Both Pakistan and India appeal to Arab states for support-India warning of the danger of Iranian dominance of the Southwest Asia.-but the initial successes of China against the US have stimulated major anti-Western movement in Muslim societies. One by one the remaining pro-Western governments of Arab states and Turkey are brought down by Islamic fundamentalists. This surge of anti-Westernism provoked by Western weakness leads to a massive Arab attack on Israel, which the much-reduced US Sixth fleet is unable to stop.
As China scores military successes, Japan nervously begins to bandwagon with China, shifting its position to pro-Chinese neutrality and eventually becomes a cobelligerent. The United States declares a blockade of Japan, and Japanese and American ships engage in sporadic duels in Western Pacific. At the start of the war China proposed a mutual security pact with Russia (vaguely reminiscent of the Hitler-Stalin pact). But instead the prospects of Chinese victory and total dominance of China in East Asia terrifies Moscow. As Russia moves in an anti-China direction and begins to re-inforce its troops in Siberia, the numerous Chinese settlers in Siberia interfere with these movements. China then intervenes on pretext of protecting its countrymen.
As fighting occurs between China and Russia in Central Siberia, uprising occur in Mongolia, which China had earlier placed under a protectorate.
The control and access to oil is of central importance to all combatants. Despite its heavy investment in nuclear energy, Japan is heavily dependent on oil imports and this strengthens its inclination to accommodate China. During the course of the war, as Arab countries come under control of Islamic militants, Persian Gulf oil supplies to the west diminish to a trickle, and the West consequently becomes increasingly dependent upon Russian, Caucasian and Central Asian sources. This leads the West to intensify its efforts to enlist Russia on its side and to support Russia in extending its control over the oil-rich Muslim countries to its south.
The European allies of the US provide diplomatic and economic assistance but are reluctant to become involved militarily. China and Iran are fearful that European countries will eventually rally behind America, even as the US eventually came to support of Britain and France in the two World wars. To prevent this, they deploy intermediate range nuclear missiles to Bosnia and Algeria and warn that the European powers should stay out of the war. Serbia, wishing to reclaim its historic role as the defender of Christianity against the Turks, invades Bosnia. Croatia joins in and the two countries occupy and partition Bosnia, and capture the missiles. Albania and Turkey come to aid of Bosnia but Greece and Bulgaria launch invasions of the European Turkey. Meanwhile, a nuclear missile, launched from Algeria, explodes outside Marseilles (France). NATO retaliates with devastating air attacks against North African targets.
The control and access to oil is of central importance to all combatants. Despite its heavy investment in nuclear energy, Japan is heavily dependent on oil imports and this strengthens its inclination to accommodate China. During the course of the war, as Arab countries come under control of Islamic militants, Persian Gulf oil supplies to the west diminish to a trickle, and the West consequently becomes increasingly dependent upon Russian, Caucasian and Central Asian sources. This leads the West to intensify its efforts to enlist Russia on its side and to support Russia in extending its control over the oil-rich Muslim countries to its south.
The European allies of the US provide diplomatic and economic assistance but are reluctant to become involved militarily. China and Iran are fearful that European countries will eventually rally behind America, even as the US eventually came to support of Britain and France in the two World wars. To prevent this, they deploy intermediate range nuclear missiles to Bosnia and Algeria and warn that the European powers should stay out of the war. Serbia, wishing to reclaim its historic role as the defender of Christianity against the Turks, invades Bosnia. Croatia joins in and the two countries occupy and partition Bosnia, and capture the missiles. Albania and Turkey come to aid of Bosnia but Greece and Bulgaria launch invasions of the European Turkey. Meanwhile, a nuclear missile, launched from Algeria, explodes outside Marseilles (France). NATO retaliates with devastating air attacks against North African targets.
Possible Results:
-The United States, Europe, Russia and India have thus become engaged in a truly global struggle against China, Japan and most of Islam. Both sides have major nuclear capabilities which if brought into more than minimal play; the principal countries on both sides could be substantially destroyed.
-Mutual exhaustion might lead to a negotiated armistice, which would not, however, resolve the fundamental issue of Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Alternatively the West could try to defeat China through use of conventional military power. But alignment of Japan with China will prevent the West from using its naval power against Chinese centre of population and industry along the coast.
-The alternative is to approach china from the West. The fighting between Russia and China leads NATO to welcome Russia as its member and to cooperate with Russia in countering Chinese incursions in Serbia, maintaining Russian control over oil and gas in Central Asia. This can be achieved by promoting insurrections against Chinese rule by Tibetans, Uighurs and Mongolians.
Aftermath: Whatever the immediate outcome of this global civilizational war, the broader long -term result would be drastic decline in economic, demographic and military power of all major participants. The global power which had shifted from East to west and had again started shifting from West to East would now shift from North to South. The great beneficiaries of the war of civilization are those which abstained from it. With the West, Russia and China devastated to varying degrees, the way is open for India (if it escaped such devastation, as it was a secondary participant in the war) to reshape the World along its lines.
In America, large segment of public will blame the severe weakening of the US on the Western orientation of the elites hence Hispanic leaders could come to power. Africa will not have much to offer in order to rebuild Europe but it can prey on the remains. In the East, if China, Japan and Korea are devastated by the war, the power centre will move Indonesia which had remained neutral. In any scenario, the power will move south
-The United States, Europe, Russia and India have thus become engaged in a truly global struggle against China, Japan and most of Islam. Both sides have major nuclear capabilities which if brought into more than minimal play; the principal countries on both sides could be substantially destroyed.
-Mutual exhaustion might lead to a negotiated armistice, which would not, however, resolve the fundamental issue of Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Alternatively the West could try to defeat China through use of conventional military power. But alignment of Japan with China will prevent the West from using its naval power against Chinese centre of population and industry along the coast.
-The alternative is to approach china from the West. The fighting between Russia and China leads NATO to welcome Russia as its member and to cooperate with Russia in countering Chinese incursions in Serbia, maintaining Russian control over oil and gas in Central Asia. This can be achieved by promoting insurrections against Chinese rule by Tibetans, Uighurs and Mongolians.
Aftermath: Whatever the immediate outcome of this global civilizational war, the broader long -term result would be drastic decline in economic, demographic and military power of all major participants. The global power which had shifted from East to west and had again started shifting from West to East would now shift from North to South. The great beneficiaries of the war of civilization are those which abstained from it. With the West, Russia and China devastated to varying degrees, the way is open for India (if it escaped such devastation, as it was a secondary participant in the war) to reshape the World along its lines.
In America, large segment of public will blame the severe weakening of the US on the Western orientation of the elites hence Hispanic leaders could come to power. Africa will not have much to offer in order to rebuild Europe but it can prey on the remains. In the East, if China, Japan and Korea are devastated by the war, the power centre will move Indonesia which had remained neutral. In any scenario, the power will move south
