The Chinese dragon has been spitting and breathing fire for quite some time now and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the world to ignore it. China has added a very strong pole to the geo-politics of the world which has brought about a balance in the two different parts of the world, which has been dominated single handedly by the USA for almost two decades. China has quite frankly provided a platform for all the nations that want to challenge the monopoly of the USA.
Well, think of it again. Does this remind you of anything you heard or saw not so long ago? I won't blame you if your answer is the (former) Soviet Union. USSR played a similar role in the world geo-politics for almost 5 decades (prior to it's disintegration) after the Second world war. This role is now being taken up by China. I won't go as far as to say that China has already achieved a status (in the White house) that was enjoyed by the (former) Soviet Union, but if we look at the economic, military and political scenarios of today then we would be forced to agree to a fact that China is not very far behind.
Partners in Crime?
In the last few years America's military activities has seen a lot of action, and (sadly) more action is expected in the future. Be it Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia or occasional threats to Iran and N Korea, the US has been trying very hard to make it's presence felt in every corner of the world. Clearly they have been doing this with the help of their partners in Europe (mainly UK & France), Canada and Pacific (Australia) aka NATO for a simple reason that all these (developed) countries share a common future threat - China. From the pattern of the US advancement into the eastern world it is clear that their quest ends at China, hence they are busy looking for more allies in the region and a clear candidate is definitely India which co-dominates the South Asian region along with China. India certainly has it's security concerns which is why it wants to ally with the USA, especially with the ever growing relations between China and arch enemy- Pakistan. The recent Indo-US Nuclear deal is one of the first step in this regard. US, with India's help, is trying to establish more military bases in the Indian ocean and on both eastern and western coasts of India to keep check both on Pakistan and China - two of the 3 Nuclear powers in the region.
This scenario is actually ironical in many ways. During the Cold war we saw a similar situation developing. Nations were busy modifying their foreign policies in order to prove their alliance and loyalty to either USA or the USSR. At that time even though India had adopted a Non-aligned foreign policy but it was more biased in favor of the USSR than US (mostly because of Socialist attitude of Pt. Nehru), whereas Pakistan, at that time, became one of the strongest US ally (only to be abandoned later). For some countries Sides may have changed now, but China seems to be replacing (former) Soviet Union in this 'New Cold War'.
Role of Middle east
What could be the possible role of the Middle east in this whole equation?
Simply by looking at history of last two decades one can judge the magnitude of America's interest in the Middle east. I know most people would talk about Oil, energy resources & the US-Israel alliance as the reasons for the US interference in the Middle east. But what they fail to notice is the long term plan of the Pentagon. China enjoys very good diplomatic & trade relationship with almost all countries of the OIC (Organisation of the Islamic Conference). Of all these nations China has best relationship with Pakistan, which being a Nuclear power, enjoys an extremely important position in the OIC. US is afraid of the growing Chinese dominance in the Islamic bloc of the world.
The only drawback China faces is that even though it has got world's largest Army, still it is militarily not at par with the US and hence cannot take the risk of a military confrontation with America, firstly because US has an Army comparable to China's with superior technology and secondly US will have tremendous support from Western Europe, Australia and India (which has world's third largest army). Also, China doesn't want to break the rhythm of development it currently enjoys. US knows this and they are busy making hay while the sun shines. They want to control Middle east to an extent that in future China is not able to interfere in this region.
New Cold War over Africa’s Oil Riches
I personally feel bad for the African nations. In event of any major war these nations have to suffer the most. This part of the world has some of world's most efficient labor force and huge amount of unexploited energy resources.
To paraphrase the famous quip during the 1992 US Presidential debates, when an unknown William Jefferson Clinton told then-President George Herbert Walker Bush, “It’s the economy, stupid,” the present concern of the current Washington Administration over Darfur in southern Sudan is not, if we were to look closely, genuine concern over genocide against the peoples in that poorest of poor part of a forsaken section of Africa.
No. “It’s the oil, stupid.”
Hereby hangs a tale of cynical dimension appropriate to a Washington Administration that has shown no regard for its own genocide in Iraq, when its control over major oil reserves is involved. What’s at stake in the battle for Darfur? Control over oil, lots and lots of oil. US and China have been locking horns over the black gold for quite some time now.
In recent months, Beijing has embarked on a series of initiatives designed to secure long-term raw materials sources from one of the planet's most endowed regions-the African subcontinent. No raw material has higher priority in Beijing at present than the securing of long term oil sources. Today China draws an estimated 30% of its crude oil from Africa. That explains an extraordinary series of diplomatic initiatives which have left Washington furious. China is using no-strings-attached dollar credits to gain access to Africa's vast raw material wealth, leaving Washington's typical control game via the World Bank and IMF out in the cold. Who needs the painful medicine of the IMF when China gives easy terms and builds roads and schools to boot? Beijing has a plan and well it seems to be working very well.
The US is trying to retaliate by exploiting the war in Darfur. The Pentagon has been busy training African military officers in the US, much as it has for Latin American officers for decades. Its International Military Education and Training (IMET) program has provided training to military officers from Chad, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Cameroon and the Central African Republic, in effect every country on Sudan’s border. Much of the arms that have fueled the killing in Darfur and the south have been brought in via murky, protected private “merchants of death” such as the former KGB operative, now with offices in the US, Victor Bout.This, once again, brings in the similarities between the 'Cold War' and the 'New Cold War'. Bout has been cited repeatedly in recent years for selling weapons across Africa. US Government officials strangely leave his operations in Texas and Florida untouched despite the fact he is on the Interpol wanted list for money laundering.
The Asia factor
Asia, all throughout the history, has been the deciding factor of major wars which include the Cold war and the Second World War. On one hand bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki officially terminated the Second World War in favor of allied powers, and on the other hand Vietnam & Korea were two of major battlefields for the Cold War between US & USSR.
Today,once again the events in Asia are slowly shaping up the 'New Cold War'. Unlike Europe, there is a lot of hostility amongst neighbors in Asia and there is always a threat of a Nuclear War looming. This part of the world houses 3 nations with Nuclear weapons (I am a little foggy about North Korea), which makes any event in this region very important. Most recent being the war in Sri Lanka. China and Pakistan provided unconditional military & intelligence support to the Sri Lankan government while India preferred to remain neutral, maybe because the last time India interfered in SL it resulted in assassination of former PM - Rajiv Gandhi. This neutral stance of India is being duly criticized by Indian Tamils and has led to a un-balanced and dangerous geo-political situation.
This, in fact, is the only reason why USA is so desperate to find allies in this region. India is their only hope which is why they are providing unconditional support to India against Pakistan. Recent statement by President Obama "India has right to protect itself" strengthens this claim. A weak Pakistan is in interest of both India (for obvious reasons) and USA because if they control Pakistan, it is very easy to corner China as US already has Japan and South Korea on their side. Precisely for this reason, US started off by installing a puppet government in Pakistan and now they are entering Pakistan via Afghanistan on pretext of eliminating Taliban. The puppet (Zardari & Gilani) government has not even tried to seek China's support which has rendered Beijing quizzical and furious. American dominance is definitely being felt in the Indian subcontinent.
China's attitude has made it very clear that they are not backing down. Current Economic crisis is helping this attitude of China. US is trying it's best to keep a check on their activities and have been successful for most part, but the rate at which China is growing can result in more difficult times for the USA. China is on the path of successfully replacing the (former) USSR in this 'New Cold War' and US would not want to make the same mistakes that it made during the Cold War. US has the advantage of experience.
